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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股直击 > 国泰君安:降鞍钢股份H股评级至减持 目...

                                                                                                                                                                            国泰君安:降鞍钢股份H股评级至减持 目标价4元

                                                                                                                                                                              国泰君安发表报告称,鞍钢(00347)(深:000898)去年业绩疲弱,低于预期。鞍钢公布去年亏损21.5亿元(人民币。下同)。鞍钢去年首三季盈利0.033元,所以亏损0.33元全部来自于去年第四季。公司认为录得亏损的主要原因是原材料价格涨幅高于钢价涨幅,及由于故障导致的高炉维修费用较高。

                                                                                                                                                                              报告预期,鞍钢盈利在2012年将持续疲弱,由于冷轧产能过剩风险加剧。2011年冷轧走势弱于建筑钢,冷轧钢与螺纹钢的平均价差仅为741元,同比下降45%。报告认为主要原因是,汽车增长缓慢和钢铁产能建设超过预期。去年汽车销量18.5百万辆,同比增长3%,预期今年汽车需求增长6%。此外,强势矿石价格在2012年不会改变。报告预期未来2年印度73百万吨的铁矿石出口会迅速降至0,形成供应缺口,支撑强势铁矿石价格。矿价强势的局面在2013年可能有所改观。

                                                                                                                                                                              报告调降鞍钢股份的2011年至2013年每股盈利预测至-0.297元,0.012元,和0.088元。预期鞍钢的盈利在2012年将依然处于盈亏平衡,在2013年盈利能力有可能恢复。但是短期,疲弱汽车需求,钢铁产能过剩风险加剧和印度限制铁矿石出口是最大的负面催化剂。调降维持目标价至4港元,相当于0.45倍2011年预测市净率。降级至「减持」。

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/astock/20170617/82796.html

                                                                                                                                                                            国泰君安:降鞍钢股份H股评级至减持 目标价4元 鞍钢股份  


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