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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股直击 > 李大霄:A股漂亮牛行情迎来重要“导火索...

                                                                                                                                                                            李大霄:A股漂亮牛行情迎来重要“导火索”!

                                                                                                                                                                              沪港通和深港通之后,中国内地与香港金融市场的互联互通又将升级。中国人民银行和香港金融管理局5月16日傍晚发布联合公告,决定同意开展香港与内地债券市场的互联互通合作。这意味着,备受金融市场关注的“债券通”启动进入倒计时。

                                                                                                                                                                              联合公告称,“债券通”是指境内外投资者通过香港与内地债券市场基础设施机构连接,买卖两个市场交易流通债券的机制安排。初期先开通“北向通”,即香港及其他国家与地区的境外投资者,经由香港与内地基础设施机构之间在交易、托管、结算等方面互联互通的机制安排,投资于内地银行间债券市场。未来将适时研究扩展至“南向通”,即境内投资者经由两地基础设施机构之间的互联互通机制安排,投资于香港债券市场。

                                                                                                                                                                              债券通对债市市场的影响

                                                                                                                                                                              中国内地的债券市场已经发展到很大的规模。从债券托管总量上讲,内地市场已经是全球第三、亚洲第二,在信用债方面,内地更是位列全球第二、亚洲第一。对于迅速发展的内地债券市场,债券通无疑是非常重大的利好消息。

                                                                                                                                                                              目前,中国内地的十年期国债利率比美国高120个基点,比德国高300个基点,比日本高350个基点。在全球主要债券市场中,中国内地的债券收益率是比较高的,而且优势非常明显。对于全球债券投资者来说,虽然要面临货币汇率的风险,但是,巨大的收益率差距优势,仍然使内地的债券市场具有强大的吸引力。

                                                                                                                                                                              可以预期的是,债券通开启后,国际资本会通过这个渠道源源不断地涌入内地市场。根据渣打的预测,在开通后的两年内,这部分资金可能达到2万亿以上。由于债券通没有设定额度的限制、没有上限的规定,正所谓“韩信点将,多多益善”,内地债券市场因此迎来了大规模发展的重要契机,香港作为国际金融中心的地位也会得到迅速提升。随着资金的充裕,规模会逐步壮大,内地债券市场将会越来越规范、越来越活跃、越来越受到重视,整个的内地债券的风险定价能力也会逐渐提升。在此基础上,人民币国际化步伐也会进一步加快。

                                                                                                                                                                              债市通对A股市场的影响

                                                                                                                                                                              在金融市场双边互联互通的背景下,资金倾向于朝着估值相对便宜的市场流动。沪港通后,初期资金流向A股,深港通后资金流向港股,根本原因还是在于估值差异带来的正常资金流动现象。目前,由于港股估值原因,南下资金还是比较明显。

                                                                                                                                                                              总的来说,这次债券通的新政,在北向先开放的情况下,加上内地债券收益率有优势,大量外资可能涌入收益更高的中国债券市场。在此背景下,债券市场的供求关系会逐步变化,债券收益率会改变急速上升的趋势,甚至逐步下降。这对于当下A股的拥有高股息率的蓝筹股来说,无疑是重大的利好因素。

                                                                                                                                                                              从一定程度上讲,债券通就是A股蓝筹股漂亮牛行情的重要催化剂和导火索!债券通正式开通之日,也许就是漂亮牛最辉煌的那一天。

                                                                                                                                                                              让我们共同期待吧!

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/astock/20170618/82942.html

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