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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股直击 > 陈景扬:调整近尾声,鞍钢可吸纳...

                                                                                                                                                                            陈景扬:调整近尾声,鞍钢可吸纳

                                                                                                                                                                              陈景扬:调整近尾声,鞍钢可吸纳 

                                                                                                                                                                              ●市场看重去产能及行业结构性调整,鞍钢直接受惠。

                                                                                                                                                                              恒生指数升穿2016年9月高位后无以为继,主要受美国道指连跌八日拖累,市场忧虑特朗普推行政策举步维艰,「特式升市」可能告一段落。港股短线回调压力开始增加,选股方面应该更加审慎,本周不妨留意早于2月已展开回调的鞍钢(00347.HK)。

                                                                                                                                                                              3月29日,星期三。恒指上周一举突破2016年9月高位后反复偏软,虽然目前看似在10天线有支持,但笔者仍然维持两周前的预测,恒指有机会下试50天线。目前50天线位处约23,700点,而3月16日留下的上升裂口则约23,850点,如恒指短线并无更大动力向上突破的话,回补早前上升裂口及下试50天线的可能性不低,总体而言短线走势偏淡。

                                                                                                                                                                              笔者上周明言中移动(00941.HK)豪派息不合理,事实上其2016年末期息仅派1.243港元,全年派息相对2015年近乎零增长,有时候大行报告真是随便瞎猜。无独有偶,特首选举完结后,又有大行吹嘘香港政府即将要为楼市再推辣招,并会从差饷入手,包括向持有多套物业者征收两倍甚至三倍差饷。大行呀大行,不如你猜7月1日起征收十倍印花税啦!

                                                                                                                                                                              华能新能源值博

                                                                                                                                                                              笔者于过去两个月内曾两度推介的华能新能源(00958.HK)终于发表2016年度业绩,去年多赚43%至26.59亿元人民币,每股盈利(EPS)0.2733元人民币,折合0.311港元。回望笔者2月9日「风起云雾散,华能新能源」一文,当时预期华能新能源纯利上限为26亿元人民币,换言之其业绩胜预期。假设华能新能源今年纯利增长只有一成,其预测EPS已达到0.342港元,予其10倍市盈率(P/E)计,今年目标价已达3.42港元。

                                                                                                                                                                              至于在今年1月12日文章「一带一路电力王,伟能盈利大爆发」推介过的伟能集团(01608.HK),去年全年纯利增长57.2%至2.22亿港元,EPS 0.087元,末期息每股0.0257港元。如撇除一次性上市开支的话,其纯利按年大升82.7%至2.63亿港元,EPS 0.103港元。同一时间,伟能公布与中信股份(00267.HK)附属公司中信泰富订立一份谅解备忘录,通过成立合营公司,一方面发掘东南亚清洁及可再生能源发电项目,另一方面则可共同投资及发展若干东南亚燃气发电厂项目。

                                                                                                                                                                              另一家值得留意的公司,就是四叔旗下的美丽华酒店(00071.HK)。笔者于去年10月6日「认股权证藏玄机,真命天子美丽华」一文中提到,集团于2015年6月发行红利认股权证,每持有5股正股获发1股红股,而红股持有人则可在2018年1月16日以13.5港元兑换一股美丽华。从港交所(00388.HK)披露权益可见,四叔于美丽华公布业绩后已连续三日透过认股权证增持171.6万股美丽华。

                                                                                                                                                                              从推介前报15.94港元至本周二收市价17.08港元,美丽华已累升7.2%,然而其认股权证美丽华酒店一八(01437.HK),却已从2.7港元升至3.62港元,升幅达到34.1%。如美丽华股价能升穿去年11月高位18.54港元的话,下浪顶将见20港元,届时其认股权证每股理论价为6.5港元,潜在升幅达80%。买正股还是买认股权,各位可自行选择,惟值得留意的是,两者成交疏落兼差价较阔,未必适合胆小人士参与。

                                                                                                                                                                              后市回升还看金属股

                                                                                                                                                                              目前港股正处于整固格局,如后市要回升,还须寄望今年第一批炒起的基本金属股。在技术层面而言,三只强中强的资源股中铝(02600.HK)、鞍钢(00347.HK)及洛钼(03993.HK)早于2月已呈现回调讯号,巧合地三股近期分别从高位回落18.9%、18.4%及20.8%,前两者已进入调整最后阶段(预期尚有三至五个交易日),洛钼则仍未跌够。

                                                                                                                                                                              从日均成交以至动能方面入手,笔者倾向炒作鞍钢。此股刚公布去年扭亏为盈赚16.3亿元人民币,虽然现价相对2016年历史P/E达20.6倍,但市场焦点仍放在去产能及行业结构性调整之上,相信这份憧憬仍会是今年的炒作理由。较保守的投资者,不妨待其回调至5港元水平吸纳,博其中线升穿年内高位,并以2015年1月及4月双顶位置约6.9港元作为止赚位,整项投资回报约38%。

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/astock/20170717/96341.html

                                                                                                                                                                            陈景扬:调整近尾声,鞍钢可吸纳;陈景扬 


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