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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股直击 > 交银国际:鞍钢股份长线买入评级 看5....

                                                                                                                                                                            交银国际:鞍钢股份长线买入评级 看5.86港元

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                                                                                                                                                                              鞍钢股份347 HK

                                                                                                                                                                              一季度业绩与预告相符。13 年 1 季度营业收入 191.7 亿元,同比增长 1.5%,实现归属于普通股东净利润 5.4 亿元,同比亏转盈,去年同期公司亏损 18.8亿元,利润大幅增长主要原因:1)一季度钢材市场向好,原材料价格涨幅低于钢价。2)采取各类降本增效措施,增加收益。

                                                                                                                                                                              期内出厂价大幅上调。一季度公司主要钢材出厂价均有上调,热轧、冷轧、镀锌、中厚板、线材价格分别上调 17%、10%、7%、14%、11%,行业回暖带来钢价上涨。同时,自去年年底自春节期间,矿石价格处于上升期,公司受益于集团滞后的铁矿石结算制度。

                                                                                                                                                                              毛利率大幅回升。收益于钢价回升及公司采取的各类降本增效措施,1 季度公司毛利率为 13.1%,延续了自去年 3 季度以来的恢复趋势,去年 3、4 季度毛利率分别为 1.0%和 4.0%。财务方面,一季度存货为 106.4 亿元,环比去年年末基本持平。。

                                                                                                                                                                              二季度市场低迷,公司盈利将出现反复。春节以来,现货市场价格受高库存影响一直下滑,公司钢材出厂价在 4 月份逆势上涨后,终因钢价倒挂严重而下调五月份出厂价。在需求恢复未超预期的情况下,截止上周末,按原口径统计下的热轧库存为 409 万吨,近一个月来库存上升 2.3%,而同期其他种类钢材库存均明显下降,同期螺纹钢、冷轧、线材及中厚板的下降幅度分别为10.7%、4.7%、12.9%和 6.5%,热轧自去年年底以来积累的低库存优势逐渐消失,在矿山库存稳定,矿价继续保持平稳的假设下,二季度公司盈利环比或将再次出现亏损。

                                                                                                                                                                              维持长线买入投资评级,维持目标价 HK$5.86。二季度市场复苏力度较弱,钢价倒挂严重,现货及期货市场价格均出现走低的情况,除龙头宝钢以外钢厂纷纷降低出厂价,且铁矿石价格企稳,预计二季度公司利润将下滑,或将再次出场亏损的局面,预计 13/14 年 EPS 为 0.004/0.013,维持“长线买入”评级和 HK$5.86 的目标价,现目标价对应公司 13 年 P/B 为 0.7x。(双双)

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                                                                                                                                                                            交银国际:鞍钢股份长线买入评级 看5.86港元 交银国际  


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