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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股直击 > 国浩资本:鞍钢股份投机性买入 目标价...

                                                                                                                                                                            国浩资本:鞍钢股份投机性买入 目标价5.72元

                                                                                                                                                                            国浩资本:鞍钢股份投机性买入 目标价5.72元

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                                                                                                                                                                              鞍钢股份(347)重申的投机性买入建议,因公司2013年第2季的盈利状况令人惊喜

                                                                                                                                                                              鞍钢(347, $4.22)于上周五收市后发盈喜,指其上半年盈利转亏为盈达7.02亿元人民币(每股盈利0.097元人民币),而去年同期公司亏损达19.8亿元人民币(每股亏损0.273元人民币)。评论: 鞍钢第1季的盈利为5.4亿元人民币(每股盈利0.07元人民币),因此盈喜所给出的指引意味着公司第2季的盈利为1.62亿元人民币(每股盈利0.03元人民币),优于本行之前估计的盈亏平衡及市场估计的轻松亏损。有鉴于第2季度的国内钢材价格分别按季及按年跌11%及15%,业绩令市场惊喜。本行相信公司能连续两季录得盈利,主要乃由于公司于期内致力减低成本及改善营运效率,尤其在原材料采购及销售方面。由于现时市场共识鞍钢2013年全年的盈利仅为5.65亿元人民币,本行认为将有更多的分析员上调对鞍钢的盈利预测,从而对其股价有正面的刺激作用。国内的钢材价格于6月份底部开始出现初期的反弹,本月至今热轧钢的价格升3.1%。同时间,库存跌至3月份最低的水平(板材库存量较3月份水平下跌10%),反映刚性需求正缓慢复甦中。随着武钢提升8月份的产品售价(为3月份以来首次)及宝钢维持8月份产品售价不变,本行相信钢价以至钢厂盈利在6月份已经见底。有见于钢铁行业将于8月尾进入传统旺季,而原材料如铁矿石及焦煤的成本仍处于相对低的水平,本行预期鞍钢下半年的盈利能力将高于第2季水平。公司股价自2013年1月份的周期高位6.72元已回落近37%后,现时的估值只相当于0.51倍市帐率(或较其过去4年的平均水平有48%折让,由于公司今年有望成功扭亏,本行认为其估值低廉。值得注意是公司于2011年第4季及2008年第4季的平均市帐率水平分别为0.55倍及0.64倍,而当时公司的亏损分别达24亿元人民币及53亿元人民币。重申投机性买入的建议,目标价仍为5.72元,相当于0.7倍的2013年市帐率。(双双)

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                                                                                                                                                                            国浩资本:鞍钢股份投机性买入 目标价5.72元 国浩资本  


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