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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 贵金属 > 贵金属要闻 > 邹鸿卓:CPI数据能否阻挡黄金涨势,周线...

                                                                                                                                                                            邹鸿卓:CPI数据能否阻挡黄金涨势,周线收官黄金原油如何布局

                                                                                                                                                                              数据利好不断黄金节节攀升:

                                                                                                                                                                              自本周以来,本以为黄金会受到非农数据利空的影响会进一步回调乃至开启暴跌模式,然而顽强的黄金仅用一天时间就调整好了姿态减缓了非农的跌势,并且在美联储官员鸽派的助力下迅速开启反弹行情。出乎意料的是;周三特朗普与金三胖就“美朝”问题互相炮轰引发市场避险陡然升温,让黄金价格录得两个月以来最强单日涨幅,不仅收回非农跌势更是突破上周高位阻力。随着美国与朝鲜的紧张态势加剧,避险需求上升,短期内,因危机不大可能会消退,金价持续获得支撑并一度突破1280关口。而隔日晚间公布的初请失业金数据意外录得增加以及PPI数据录得11个月以来最大跌幅,美指短线跳水,趁机给予避险之中的黄金如虎添翼,多头再度拉升触及日内新高于1287.8一线。那么对于今日以及后期黄金走势会如何?会突破千三关口吗?笔者认为虽然市场持续炒作朝鲜危机,但朝鲜半岛局势进一步恶化可能性不大;若两国关系不再恶化,黄金可能会回落。一般来说受避险引爆的行情拉升也快,回落也快,但这次可不是我们想象的那么简单,所以黄金仍有上涨的动力,但今晚黄金会面临层层关口考验,重点关注下方数据以及消息的影响。

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                                                                                                                                                                              恐怖数据携手美联储官员来袭:

                                                                                                                                                                              今晚美国CPI通胀数据是重中之重,CPI数据的好坏直接影响到美联储货币政策的实施。如果通胀数据利空黄金,那么即使当下黄金拥有多头助力,也难以抵挡通胀的利空,因为通胀数据基本将决定当下美联储对黄金市场的态度。但不过从今年以来的通胀数据来看,通胀数据在持续下滑,尤其是上个月更是跌至1.6%,哪怕这个月通胀数据出现回调,大概率依然是低于2%的预期,所以对黄金利好的结果应该还是占多数。另外关注今晚美国达拉斯联储主席、2017年FOMC票委卡普兰和美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席、2017年FOMC票委卡什卡里的讲话。

                                                                                                                                                                              黄金技术面剖析:

                                                                                                                                                                              日线上看黄金自周二于1250一带止跌反弹之后受避险的提振短短两天拉升20多美金并形成“红三兵”形态,多头趋势依旧明显。目前短期内上方受1290一带压制,进一步压力位还是前期双重顶部于1295一带,笔者认为至于今晚能否突破千三关口的关键就在于“恐怖数据”的好坏。而下方则可以看出金价在隔日突破1280关口之后,隔夜虽有小幅回调,但依然守住1280一带支撑,而进一步支撑则位于5日均线于1274一带,而附图MACD二次放量不断持强暗示金价仍有上涨空间。所以对于今日黄金笔者建议顺势低多为主,但不建议过度去追多,毕竟今晚数据以及消息行情重重,一旦空头来袭必将挫败避险带来的暴涨行情,届时,笔者会实时解剖数据行情及在线指导。

                                                                                                                                                                              黄金实时策略:建议回落在1285附近做多,止损1280,目标1293附近,

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                                                                                                                                                                              原油折戟50美元大关:

                                                                                                                                                                              说起原油真是暗自神伤,说好的EIA破位,可结果大失所望。当市场从EIA的行情之中转移到隔日的OPEC月报,市场再度期待破位。当公布结果的那一段时间,笔者只想用四个字总结:喜忧参半!喜的是原油价格再度攀升50美元关口,忧的是油价再度在该位置折戟重返震荡区间。笔者之前在文章中也说过下方关注48.5一带支撑,上方关注50.5一带阻力(8月1号高位阻力)若油价能有效站稳50美元整数关口后市继续看多至52美元大关。那么经过周三以及周四的行情走势来看,API以及EIA原油库存以远超预期的幅度下降,推动油价走高,但汽油库存回升抑制了涨势。虽然说周三油价录得涨势,而周四日内延续涨势拉升至50.22一线,但由于欧佩克原油产量连续三个月上涨,主要因沙特、利比亚和尼日利亚产量增加,加剧市场对近期油价上涨将失去动力的担忧,油价反转跳水接近2美金直逼48美元整数关口。在本周一系列消息面多空胶着的状态下,笔者认为油价难以获得持续突破50美元关口持续上行的动能,由于美国页岩油生产商的盈亏平衡价格聚集于50美元附近,其弹性影响可能导致美国原油价格围绕50美元关口上下震荡。那么在今日周线收官的情况下笔者万老师认为油价仍将维持区间震荡,重点关注明日凌晨钻井数据的影响。

                                                                                                                                                                              原油技术面剖析:

                                                                                                                                                                              隔日原油亚欧时段延续周三涨势不断攀升突破50美元关口,但在美盘时段油价瞬间跳水呈单边性下挫直逼48关口,隔日油价暴跌逾2%,主要是因为在全球供应过剩忧虑挥之不去的情况下,俄罗斯考虑在减产协议到期后增加产量,且7月OPEC原油产量上升。日线上看隔日油价收取一根大阴线并跌破5日均线,下方受10日均线于48.35一带支撑,进一步支撑位于48整数关口,若油价持续下挫并跌破该位置支撑,那么油价即将向下迎来短期破位看向30日均线于47.5一带。油价经过隔夜大幅度跳水,反弹无力,但上方5日均线于49.3一带阻力仍然是我们关注的地方,若油价能重拾在该位置之上仍有机会冲向50大关,不过从目前的局势来看这种情况是比较渺小的。所以对于今日油价笔者先看好区间震荡,一旦跌破下方支撑那就是空头来袭。

                                                                                                                                                                              原油实时操作策略:

                                                                                                                                                                              1、上方首次触及49关口附近做空,止损49.4,目标48.3附近;

                                                                                                                                                                              投资只有一个目的,那就是赚更多的钱,为了让身边的人过的更好,没有谁的钱是大风刮来的,路上白捡的,这个市场不缺老师,缺的是一个有良心的老师,一个有责任心,站在客户角度去考虑问题的老师,我会和你们荣辱与共,共进共退,真的的老师可以走进你的内心,知道你需要什么,一点即通,本人做人原则:说实在话,做良心事!本人做单原则,点位没到我们就看,点位到了我们就干!为不同的客户定制不同的投资方案.关注笔者,关注长期收益!笔者指导V信:zhzh889966

                                                                                                                                                                             

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/gold/story/2017/0811/103352.html

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