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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股 > 行业资讯 > 《胜算在握》六福金融黄威:推荐玖龙纸...

                                                                                                                                                                            《胜算在握》六福金融黄威:推荐玖龙纸业及金山软件

                                                                                                                                                                              六福金融黄威:推荐玖龙纸业及金山软件玖龙纸业(02689):去年中国箱板原纸行业录得显著改善,庞大人口的日常消费对需求提供有力支持。而由于加快关停落后及低效产能,新产能又须通过更严格的审批要求,行业供需状况大幅好转,为纸价带来支撑。甚至从去年10月开始内地出现纸慌,纸价开始节节攀升。玖龙纸业为亚洲最大的箱板原纸生产商,受惠行业景气度提升,截至去年底的半年度业绩大幅改善,除销售额同比增加17.3%外,毛利率亦由17.3%增加至18.3%,净利更是同比大增5.1倍。预计今年内地纸价仍将维持上涨态势,公司亦表示产品定价还有上涨空间,料能进一步提升毛利率。同时玖纸还将在泉州、重庆、河北永新、渖阳合计扩增200万吨产能,以应对市场供不应求的局面。股价处于中期上升趋势中,建议靠近20日线吸纳,目标价10.9元。(建议时股价:9.85元)金山软件(03888):公司主营业务为网络游戏、猎豹移动和云服务、办公软件及其他业务。2016年中报因上半年可供出售金融资产减值,集团业绩转为亏损,但营业额仍上升47%,表明公司运营效率持续提高。三季度报显示集团已经扭亏为盈,股东应占溢利更劲升2倍至1.42亿元。盈利改善主要原因是第一款和第二款《剑侠情缘》手游成功发布和《剑网3》的良好运营让网络游戏业务线收入较上季度增长66%,同比增长139%。2017年公司将推出第三款《剑侠情缘》系列手游《剑网3:指尖江湖》,并将携手麒麟、网龙联合发行《成吉思汗》及《魔域》手游,预计新产品的推出能为公司盈利带来持续稳定的增长。此外,公司旗下产品WPSOffice全球用户达到6亿,国内市场占有率名列前茅,公司近年计划增强该业务的商业价值,包括推出付费文档模板和联手国内最大的正版素材授权服务商站酷海洛创意为用户提供图片素材服务。随著用户消费模式升级,办公软件业务线收入有望能保持稳定增长。公司股价由二月中起出现回调,触及50日均线后开始反弹,目前股价突破20日均线和保利加中轨的双重阻力进入上升通道内,建议在现时股价17.06元买入,止蚀价15.9元,目标价17.9元。(建议时股价:17.06元)(本人没有持有所推介之证券或此等证券之任何及相关权益)永隆叶国邦:推荐中国中车(601766)及蒙牛乳业中国中车(01766):去年高铁动车组与其他铁路设备招标放缓,令集团内地的订单量偏低,惟动车、机车、货车招标已于去年底全面重启,至今中国铁路总公司启动了包括160列动车组、586台机车和40000辆货车的车辆招标,规模按年明显改善,令集团的内地业务有望见底回升。另外,海外市场将提供重要增长元素。内地已与30多个国家和地区建立高铁合作关系,集团的成本与技术均在国际平台上具相当高的竞争力,去年上半年其海外新签订单同比大幅增长126%至148.8亿元人民币,今年将寻求海外并购,力争海外订单再创新高,而早前完成增发A股集资119.3亿元人民币,有望补充资本为潜在并购提供支援。中国中车A股较h股溢价达56%,加上基本面改善,故建议现价买入,首目标价$8.30。(本周二建议时股价:$7.47)蒙牛乳业(02319):去年内地出生人口创自2000年以来新高,反映年初开始实行的二孩政策初见成效,新一轮婴儿潮可望带动各类型下游乳制品的需求。集团作为内地乳制品龙头,正在经历内部组织架构调整,新任行政总裁卢敏放将原核心业务板块重新分成四个独立运营的新事业部,除有助提高营运效率外,当中为业务占比不高的奶粉产品成立独立板块,反映管理层锐意提升此附加值较高的产品之业务投放。而在收入占比逾八成的液态奶方面,集团持续作研发升级以开发更高端产品,期望提升产品的核心竞争力从而提升售价,有助提升收入和毛利率。集团虽已为全年业绩发盈警,但值得关注其发布就未来五年达至千亿销售的战略发展计划,对盈利预测上调具正面效应,故建议于近日调整中吸纳,目标价$16.80。(本周二建议时股价:$15.44)《永隆银行证券分析师 叶国邦》(本人并没持有上述股份)

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                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/hkstock/information/2017/0304/2451.html

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