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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股 > 行业资讯 > 大盘快要完成过山车 “卖五月”正发展成...

                                                                                                                                                                            大盘快要完成过山车 “卖五月”正发展成事实

                                                                                                                                                                              今日沪深两市从下午开始再度逆转下跌,尽管保险、银行护盘,但指数持续重挫,成交量则持续放大,截止收盘,沪指报3052.79跌0.90%,创指报1771.32跌1.73%。盘面上看,银行、保险板块成护盘主力,雄安板块午后大幅杀跌。大盘和期指均创近期新低,大盘距离今年1月低点3044点仅一步之遥,期指IF主力创出新低3323.4,把昨日筑底震荡的愿念击碎;今日期指走势分化,IF主力合约贴水3.3;IH主力小幅收高贴水2.12;IC主力升水1.56。

                                                                                                                                                                              近期大盘和期指接连下挫,仿佛虚弱的病人难以康复,但笔者看来造成这种令人抑郁的原因其实并不复杂:首先是中国的股票市场过度投机,泡沫严重,把精力认真放在提高公司盈利和估值的优秀企业不足。有股市大咖近期表示,A股无论是平均市盈率还是市盈率的中位数都远超楼市,目前所有A股的平均市盈率约为35倍。在3000多家上市公司中,市盈率高于50倍的股票在2000只以上,所有A股的市盈率中位数大约为70多倍。如此虚高的股价,只要稍有风吹草动,主力随时开溜,草民接盘侠门自然崩溃。

                                                                                                                                                                              其次,强监管持续发力。证监会公开信息称,对2016和2017年的“罚单”进行了不完全统计,11家投行遭点名批评或处罚,包括兴业证券(601377,股吧)、信达证券、中德证券、中投证券、爱建证券、西南证券(600369,股吧)、新时代证券、国信证券(002736,股吧)、中泰证券、国泰君安证券、东莞证券等。证监会还对一批会计师事务所、律师事务开出了罚单,对包括欺诈发行、虚假记载、信息披露存在重大遗漏、尽职调查不充分、出具含有虚假记载文件、财务核查存在重大遗漏等进行了严厉处罚,部分心虚的主力如果丢弃筹码逃跑,股市不跌才怪。

                                                                                                                                                                              此外,国家统计局今天发布的2017年4月份全国居民消费价格指数CPI和工业生产者出厂价格指数PPI数据显示,CPI环比上涨0.1%,同比上涨1.2%;PPI环比下降0.4%,同比上涨6.4%。数据显示经济没有通胀担忧,但可能也对股市有不良影响,因为CPI水平仅在1%多一点水平,似乎有通缩阴影;4月份PPI由升转降,而且是去年7月份以来的首次下降,显示企业需求不旺,应该引起警惕。

                                                                                                                                                                              好消息也不是没有,持续股市阴跌后,近期大量股票的重要股东已开始增持。数据显示截至5月9日,共有86家上市公司的重要股东增持,净买入份数合计4.75亿股,增仓参考市值达到41.19亿元。由于逼近前低,近期尤其需谨慎行事,一带一路高峰会即将举行,大盘若继续下滑逼近3000关口且没有反弹迹象,可考虑顺势做空,操作上仍需快进快出,“卖五月”如果发展成既成事实,期指抄底就最好等到6月以后。

                                                                                                                                                                              弘业期货北京研究中心 周智诚

                                                                                                                                                                              2017.5.10

                                                                                                                                                                            (责任编辑:王雪冰 HF074)

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/hkstock/information/2017/0511/56451.html

                                                                                                                                                                            大盘 快要 完成 过山车 卖五月 正发 展成 事实 


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