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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股 > 行业资讯 > 假牛转眼变假熊?站上3300点便是技术牛市...

                                                                                                                                                                            假牛转眼变假熊?站上3300点便是技术牛市

                                                                                                                                                                              3300点近在咫尺。

                                                                                                                                                                              时隔8个月后,沪指盘中再度突破3300点,并刷新年内新高,尽管尾盘有所回落,3300点得而复失,但积极信号依然明显。

                                                                                                                                                                              有投资者戏言,最近账户减亏,甚至开始盈利,从假牛市到假熊市看来只需短短几天时间。

                                                                                                                                                                              一方面,创业板指仍未能彻底摆脱下跌大通道的束缚,另一方面,以沪指为代表的多个指数连续走强,进一步上涨将很快触及牛熊分界线,进入技术牛市。

                                                                                                                                                                              行情数据显示,5月触底以来的近60个交易日里,沪指有近四分之三的时间收阳,行情回暖已在潜移默化中发生。

                                                                                                                                                                              1、最近一年半沪指“三过3300而不入”

                                                                                                                                                                              事实上,自2016年2月以来一年半的时间里,算上此次,沪指已有三次冲击3300点,但前两次都无功而返,这次能否站上3300点同样值得关注。

                                                                                                                                                                              2016年11月下旬,在举牌概念的带动下,市场情绪高涨,沪指在2016年11月29日突破3300点大关,触及3301.21点的高位,但在监管层规范险资投资行为后,市场快速降温,在冲上3300点后无功而返。

                                                                                                                                                                              今年4月,在雄安概念的带动下,沪指再次向3300点发起冲击。2017年4月7日,沪指一度上攻至3295.19点,离3300点仅一步之遥,但雄安概念并未带动其他板块走强,其后雄安概念也出现分化,沪指随后便打道回府。

                                                                                                                                                                              2、突破3300点靠谁?三大潜在主力看过来

                                                                                                                                                                              沪指后市如果突破3300点,很大程度上需要龙头板块的带领,那么哪些板块可能打头阵呢?

                                                                                                                                                                              从今年的市场来看,前有雄安概念、漂亮50,后有资源股,加上近日券商股,都成为了推动市场上涨的重要力量,结合目前的大环境来看,下面这三大板块可能会推动市场继续闯关,甚至突破3300点。

                                                                                                                                                                            A、资源股

                                                                                                                                                                            A、资源股

                                                                                                                                                                              有色金属、钢铁、煤炭等资源板块近两个月来持续上涨,成为A股最热主线之一。

                                                                                                                                                                              数据显示,6月以来,申万一级行业分类下的有色金属、钢铁、采掘(主要是煤炭)等资源性板块涨势居前,其中有色金属板块整体涨幅接近30%。

                                                                                                                                                                              资源性板块所包含股票数量众多,上涨带动效应强,在涨价预期的推动下,资源股有可能强者恒强,后市继续成为领涨主力,带领市场冲关。

                                                                                                                                                                              B、券商股和保险股

                                                                                                                                                                              近日券商股再现活跃迹象,多只券商股已连续数日上涨,昨日已呈现爆发迹象,该板块的活跃龙头第一创业涨停,中国银河大涨7.74%,浙商证券大涨4.62%。从技术走势上看,多数券商股已摆脱底部,第一创业短短几天的股价涨幅甚至接近三成。

                                                                                                                                                                              港股的中资券商股近日也全面爆发,国泰君安国际已连续三天收阳,昨日放量大涨8.16%。

                                                                                                                                                                              券商股一直被视为行情的风向标,其股价躁动通常给市场带来信心,如果券商股行情延续,无疑会提升A股向上的概率。

                                                                                                                                                                              太平洋证券认为,从周期属性来看,证券行业严监管的环境已经被市场充分反映,边际收紧的可能性不大。此外,该行业处于价值低估区,券商的内在价值来源于国家融资体系升级和我国资本市场的完善和壮大,因此坚定继续看好该行业。

                                                                                                                                                                              此外,保险股近日虽一度出现调整,但上行趋势并未彻底破坏,如果该板块能继续上行,无疑也是推动大盘上行的重要力量。

                                                                                                                                                                              C、银行股

                                                                                                                                                                              今年以来,银行不仅能起到定海神针的作用,还是沪指等指数持续上涨的主要动力之一。工、农、中、建、招等大行股价频创阶段或历史新高,本身就是这一板块强势的表现,如果这一趋势能得到维持,将成为大盘继续上行的最强大动能。

                                                                                                                                                                              今年部分银行的业绩出现一定改善。根据招商银行业绩快报,该银行今年上半年实现归属于股东的净利润392.59亿元,较上年同期大幅增长11.43%。 从2015年中期开始,招商银行季度和年度净利润增长率从未超过10%,此番再次超过10%,可能意味着银行业整体盈利增速下滑的趋势得到缓解,这也是近期银行股能持续上涨的重要逻辑之一。

                                                                                                                                                                            (责任编辑:王雪冰 HF074)

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/hkstock/information/2017/0806/101313.html

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