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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股 > 行业资讯 > 盘前:多重利好刺激 A股10月或迎“开门红...

                                                                                                                                                                            盘前:多重利好刺激 A股10月或迎“开门红”

                                                                                                                                                                              长假前沪深股指连续多日横盘震荡,走势相当平稳,多空均无心发力。节后走势显然是会受节日期间消息面影响。

                                                                                                                                                                              在外部,因特朗普政府税改等方面消息偏好,长假期间的欧美股市表现良好,其中美股迭创历史新高。港股休市时间不长,其节日期间表现也相当好,香港恒生指数创出2008年以来新高。

                                                                                                                                                                              在内部,节日期间最大消息无疑是"定向降准"。分析认为,虽然这个"降准"在名义上有别于常规降准,但看具体内容,其惠及的银行还是极多的,所以实际上力道也许不会太小。这个"定向降准"当然是利好,但投资者也不必看得过好。因为央行保持货币的稳健基调并未改变,不会过度放水,且"定向降准"政策得明年才实施,在未来几个月央行会依据动态数据来调整其他货币工具,这样降准效应是可以部分对冲掉的。

                                                                                                                                                                              分析人士认为,长假期间内外部消息均偏好,故今日A股应会跳空高开,且跳空幅度应该不会太小,甚至不排除有创年内新高的可能。A股节后会强一阵,但也许不会涨太猛,在最初的猛烈劲头过后,很可能又趋平稳。假如权重股被刻意压着,小票、题材股、次新股就很可能表现,所以投资者不妨暂采取以下策略:抛售权重股后适度换买非权重股。

                                                                                                                                                                              机构观点

                                                                                                                                                                              国金证券(600109,股吧):境外股市一片牛市景象,为A股提升信心。长假期间的“定向降准”有助于开启A股“红十月”行情,利好大金融板块。受定向降准消息影响,港股中的内地银行股在放假期间大涨,恒生指数仅三个交易日累计上涨3.28% 。在长假最后一个交易日(10月6日),恒指盘中一举突破2015年港股“大时代”高点,创2007年12月以来新高。在美股方面,纳斯达克指数今年第55次创历史新高。境外股市一片牛市景象,也为A股提升了信心。

                                                                                                                                                                              国金证券的研究统计指出,从估值角度来看,整体上农林牧渔、采掘、化工、钢铁、电子、纺织服装、轻工制造、医药生物、房地产、休闲服务、传媒等行业估值低于历史均值;而有色金属、家用电器、食品饮料、公用事业、交通运输、商业贸易、建筑材料、建筑装饰、电气设备、计算机、国防军工、通信、非银金融、银行、汽车、机械设备等行业高于历史均值。投资者或可以从低估值的行业中寻找到具投资潜力的个股。

                                                                                                                                                                              中金公司:的确有更多证据支持中国经济增长“新周期”的判断。中金公司首席策略分析师王汉锋表示,超预期的PMI数据表明9月宏观数据在7、8月份偏弱之后,重新回到相对健康的轨道,实体经济增长依然相对稳健。他认为,到目前为止的确有更多证据支持中国经济增长“新周期”的判断。王汉峰表示,定向降准政策有助于补充银行流动性,缓解资金压力,增加对实体经济支持。同时,此次普惠性定向降准政策还有助于缓解投资者对于经济增长的担忧。

                                                                                                                                                                              华创证券:淡化宏观逻辑,重视微观博弈。随着全球经济在四季度到明年1季度继续构筑短周期运行的顶部,而国内总需求也趋于有序回落,本轮价格高点可能出现在四季度中后段,届时在需求端的压力下周期动力将面临换挡。短期内需求结构并无持续恶化的基础,当前阶段到4季度初期A股仍处于高性价比区间,4季度后期到明年1季度债好于股。我们看好受益于PPI、CPI剪刀差收敛的中端消费,银行、保险龙头仍具配置价值。中长期持续看好新能源汽车产业链、OLED及高端制造。因此,相比于9月金股,10月金股将提高消费板块仓位,消费、金融、成长的仓位占比分别为30%、20%、40%。我们继续持有需求爆发的环保设备行业,增配中端白酒、零售电商、农业,同时布局新能源汽车产业链、TMT优质成长股。

                                                                                                                                                                            (责任编辑:吴晓琳 HF106)

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/hkstock/information/2017/1009/123698.html

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