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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股 > 行业资讯 > 明明是A股的冲刺阶段 为何突然迎来巨震...

                                                                                                                                                                            明明是A股的冲刺阶段 为何突然迎来巨震?

                                                                                                                                                                              十月归来,A股金融权重板块的引领下跳空高开,两市录得新高后转为强势震荡,受医改和环保领域的催化市场赚钱效应不减,并且整体势能继续向深成指和中小创倾斜。

                                                                                                                                                                              注意到,其实三季末以来,周期股筑顶回落的趋势日渐明显,成长和消费板块的活跃度显著提升。从机构反馈来看,成长与消费的交谊舞将如何演绎成为近期市场普遍关注的问题,其中的核心则在于成长的连续强势是否会引发四季度风格的切换。回溯今年以来有关风格切换的探讨,不难发现任何一次市场大级别主线或风格的转换,都是经济周期、宏观背景以及金融环境综合作用的结果。

                                                                                                                                                                              就中期走势而言,国内的新兴产业和成长股已经迈过了左侧区间,金融监管重心的演化、供给侧改革动能的转换以及业绩重回内生性增长使得中小创的估值底部基本得以确认。但就当前市场的具体运行而言,我们发现成长板块的强弱以及估值扩张与流动性存在更为直接的关系。由此,虽然新兴成长板块已经具备了右侧配置的基础,但在其内生性增长动力依然偏弱的背景下,流动性仍然是决定当前市场风格演化能否持续的关键变量。

                                                                                                                                                                              节后市场活跃度的回归,本质上源于类滞胀预期修正所带来的风险偏好的提振,同时会议的临近也抬升了市场的政策敏感度。但无论从基本面还是政策角度,宏微观流动性在四季度都缺乏进一步宽松的条件,因此市场出现类似于6月和8月风格切换的可能性较小。配置上建议围绕业绩确定性、PPI-CPI 剪刀差收敛以及估值合理的低位滞涨板块进行,在此基础上重视精选主题和中期新兴产业的甄别。

                                                                                                                                                                              行业配置方面,从当前业绩预告数据来看,三季度中小创业绩回升,上游业绩回落,交运创新高。继续看好新能源汽车、OLED 产业链、环保等新兴产业方向,以及高铁、核电等高端制造。主题投资方面,短期市场进入重要会议期间“空窗期”,应积极立足防御。人工智能—人脸识别、新能源汽车—汽车电子与轻量化、5G 相关细分产业龙头将是未来“合力聚焦点”;政策主题方面再次强调四季度“黑马”—农业供给侧改革,关注种植链龙头。(东.财.博.客)

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/hkstock/information/2017/1018/127724.html

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