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                                                                                                                                                                          1. 主页 > 港股 > 行业资讯 > 恒生银行:英镑料受制于1.35位置...

                                                                                                                                                                            恒生银行:英镑料受制于1.35位置

                                                                                                                                                                              恒生银行(Hang Seng Bank)高级投资市场经理在周一(10月30日)的分析报告中指出,通过分析发现英镑受制于1.35位置。

                                                                                                                                                                              该行表示,英国9月份年通胀率于3%,远超越英央行所制定的2%通胀目标,加上英央行行长卡尼过去也曾警告倘如果通胀率在高水平,他会作出加息,市场因而估计于本周的议息会,英央行不单有可能加息,甚至可能加息50个基点,但从英镑利率期货价格变化显示,目前市场估计于本周四英央行加息25个基点的机会率高达83%。

                                                                                                                                                                              该行分析师称,英央行根本不存在加息能力,因为面对脱欧的巨变,英央行是有责任扶持英国企业度过是次难关,而维持低息是最基本帮助企业生存的条件;加上英国工资增长一直偏低,扣除通胀因素后更见负增长,也就是英经济本身并不理想,指出英国目前所呈现的通胀是英镑自去年6月23日脱欧公投之后急跌,推升了入口通胀所造成。

                                                                                                                                                                              “加息只会进一步损害英经济但未必真正有能力揭抑通胀,但英央行也面对着一个两难局面,如面对如此高通胀也不加息,市场将看穿英央行的底牌,直到英央行根本无能力加息,这样往后市场将再不会相信任何卡尼作出的加息恐吓,这时候投资者可能会大举抛英镑,”该行称。

                                                                                                                                                                              该行继续表示,英镑一旦出现大跌,进口价格以至整体英通胀便会大举抽升,使英通胀全面失,这亦非卡尼所愿见。因此,基于此一考虑,认同市场的估计,卡尼是次也可能在逼于无奈下要加息25个基点,以证明其言出必行。

                                                                                                                                                                              最后该行预计,加息后不排除英镑汇价会实时有所上升,但幅度未必多,料升幅受制于1.35美元,而加息之后只要英经济略有所转弱,料英央行定必大做文章,以限制英镑的进一步攀升。

                                                                                                                                                                              “最终不排除英镑由本周到今年底也只会较大机会于1.30至1.35美元之间上落,但假如本周英央行不加息,则提防英镑有机会跌穿1.30美元,”该行称。

                                                                                                                                                                            文章来自:http://www.wm927.com/hkstock/information/2017/1113/155823.html

                                                                                                                                                                            恒生 银行 英镑 受制于 1.35位置 


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